As the US braces for the effects of 25 percent import tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which are scheduled to take full effect on April 2, 2025, here’s what to know about international trade and our food supply, how tariffs work, and how increased costs and decreased demand for American goods on the global market will affect farmers, food processors, and grocery prices in the coming months. 

What are tariffs?

A tariff is a tax that the federal government imposes on goods and services imported from other countries. Tariffs are often used to raise revenue and protect domestic industries. However, they tend to result in higher consumer prices. That’s because this tax is paid to the government by the American company that imports the goods, not by the nation exporting the goods to the US. This additional cost is often calculated into the retail or service price—passed on to the consumer—to reduce its impact on the company’s profit margin.

Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China, and beyond

In February 2025, President Trump issued executive orders imposing tariffs on imports from America’s biggest trade partners, Canada, China, and Mexico—an action expected to result in “higher prices nearly everywhere.” Economist Mary Lovely estimates that these tariffs could cost the average household around $1,200 per year across all product categories, a portion of which stems from tariffs on imported food products.

Since the initial announcement, Trump’s tariff plans have undergone several changes and delays. At the time of publication, this is what we expect beginning April 2:

Global:

• 25 percent tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum took effect March 12.
• Reciprocal tariffs to match any tariffs imposed on the US are planned for April 2.
• Secondary 25 percent tariffs on any country importing Venezuelan oil take effect April 2.

Mexico: 

• 25 percent tariffs on all imports
• Initially starting February 4, then delayed to March 4, when partial tariffs took effect.
• Amendments:  
  • Exemption on imports satisfying USMCA rules of origin requirements (~50 percent of imports from Mexico) until April 2
  • Lower the tariff on potash (used in fertilizers) to 10 percent

Canada:

• 10 percent on Canadian oil and 25 percent tariffs on remaining imports
• Initially starting February 4, then delayed to March 4, when partial tariffs took effect.
• Amendments:
  • Exemption on imports satisfying USMCA rules of origin requirements (~38 percent of imports from Canada) until April 2
  • Lowered the tariff on potash (used in fertilizers) to 10 percent

China: 

• 10 percent tariffs on imports  
• Imposed on February 4
• Amendments:
  • Increased tariffs to 20 percent on China imports beginning March 4 

How these tariffs will change food prices

The US is among the world’s leading agricultural exporters—selling $174 billion in raw, semi-processed, and processed foods to foreign markets in 2024—but we still import a significant portion of our food. Imports made up 17.3 percent of food and beverage consumption in the US in 2022. Canada and Mexico are the United States’ first- and third-largest suppliers of agricultural products. 

In 2023, Mexico accounted for 23 percent of all agricultural imports to the US, and Canada supplied 19 percent. Mexico is the largest supplier of fruit and vegetables to the US, including strawberries, raspberries, and avocados. In 2022, Mexico provided 51 percent of US fresh fruit imports and 69 percent of fresh vegetable imports.

Canada is a major source of grain, livestock and meats, poultry, oilseeds, and specialty items like maple syrup.

China is a major supplier of seafood, garlic, apple juice, teas, and spices. Since Mexico, Canada, and China are key suppliers of agricultural imports, tariffs targeting these countries will likely contribute to rising grocery prices.

The eight states that get at least 2/3 of their imports from Mexico, Canada, and China will be impacted most by Trump’s tariffs: Montana, New Mexico, Vermont, Michigan, Maine, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.

What economists say about the impact of Trump’s tariffs

Overall, levying higher tariffs on our most valuable trade partners is predicted to create negative effects on the economy. The Tax Foundation estimates that 309,000 full-time job losses are expected (before accounting for retaliatory tariffs), as well as a reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and increased consumer prices on $1.4 trillion worth of imports. 

The Budget Lab estimates that tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico will result in an annual loss of approximately $1,250 in purchasing power per household, coupled with higher prices on domestic goods (since American producers will have less competition from imported goods) and a 1.8 percent increase on fresh produce, including fruits, vegetables, and nuts. 

The National Bureau of Economic Research’s analysis finds that tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term “caused a substantial decline in U.S. agriculture and food exports,” and reduced American companies’ market value by $1.7 trillion.

The bottom line: Higher tariffs, especially coupled with retaliatory tariffs, reduce our household purchasing power, increase prices on all purchases—including groceries—and result in lost jobs and higher unemployment. 

How tariffs impact the food system

Despite the abundance of food grown in the US, the variety of food we produce is more limited than the average American diet. Most fresh produce (including fruit, vegetables, and nuts), seafood, cooking oil, and coffee are imported from other countries. The US exports approximately 20 percent of its agricultural products, including grain and animal feed; oilseeds and cooking oils; livestock, meat, and animal products; and horticultural products, a broad category that might include anything from wine to plant seedlings to fresh fruit and essential oils. 

Tariffs affect the food system in multiple ways, and the effect is uneven across all categories because the US does not grow all the food we eat. In the simplest terms, the food system is complex, interconnected, and varies by community, city, county, and state. Any change at any point in the food system creates ripple effects in the rest of the food system.

Fertilizer tariffs, export markets, and farmers

There are many steps between a farmer planting a crop and a consumer eating dinner. In fact, the global food system is so complex that growing food isn’t even the first step in the process; it begins with agricultural inputs like seeds, fertilizer, and feed. Some of these are imported, especially fertilizer: At least 80 percent and as much as 85 percent of the potash and as much as 25 percent of the nitrogen used in US agriculture is imported from Canada. That means the US food system begins with increased costs. 

The Fertilizer Institute President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch, in a statement published March 4, asked the Trump administration “to provide a strategic carveout for Canadian fertilizers from these tariffs” in order to keep costs down for farmers and, ultimately, consumers, a move Rosenbusch deems “essential to ensuring a productive harvest and protecting American farmers from unnecessary financial strain.”

In addition to more expensive inputs, farmers have to be concerned about retaliatory tariffs—tariffs imposed on the US by other countries in response to the Trump administration’s trade war posturing with our three primary trade partners. If other countries choose to reduce their imports of US goods, or levy their own tariffs (thereby raising prices for their own consumers), an unknown portion of the 20 percent of our food that gets sold to foreign markets could go unsold, leaving farmers in the lurch.

As Lisa Held at Civil Eats explains:

China is the biggest export market for American farmers. In response to Trump’s tariffs, the country announced it will reciprocate with 15 percent tariffs on American food and agricultural products including soybeans, meat, and chicken. Mexico and Canada are also promising retaliation, which could impact exports of American wine and beer, grains, and meat. During Trump’s first term, tariffs caused economic losses in farm country and the USDA paid farmers tens of billions of dollars to make up for it.

Tariffs and the supply chain: Produce shortages and overall higher costs

In addition to tariffs on food and agricultural products, Trump’s tariffs impact the prices of aluminum, steel, lumber, and other construction materials. These, alongside electronics, are used for transportation, packaging, and other components of the supply chain that are largely invisible to the consumer but are responsible for moving food to the stores where we buy it. Increased costs on these goods and materials, and the short amount of time to prepare for their implementation, could mean consumers see shortages alongside higher prices on groceries, especially for fresh, perishable foods like berries, bananas, tomatoes, avocados, peppers, and seafood. Most of these are imported and have a short shelf life, which means delays in customs, importers holding out for better prices, a smaller available selection of imports due to retaliatory tariffs, or any other delay could cause spoilage before it arrives in stores.

The CEOs of major American brands have implored the Trump administration to carve out specific tariff exemptions on goods they need to manufacture domestic products, or to remove tariffs that have triggered retaliatory tariffs from other nations. The CEOs of Jack Daniels, Campbell’s, General Mills, Tyson Foods, Coca-Cola, and Mondelez International (parent company of Oreo, Ritz, Chips Ahoy!, and others) cite concerns about packaging costs, specifically the tariffs on Canadian aluminum, retaliatory tariffs, consumer boycotts, and fluctuating export markets.

Expect to pay more to dine out

Restaurants are especially vulnerable to supply chain issues, higher prices on imported goods, lower availability of some foods, and consumer belt-tightening, as they rely on keeping costs low and consumer prices reasonable in order to ride the narrow margins of profit typical in the industry. 

Restaurant-goers are likely to see increased prices, limited menu options, or the loss of a favorite restaurant if businesses can’t navigate new hurdles to acquiring ingredients and prices within diners’ means. 

Food safety may be impaired as domestic supply stretches to meet demand

To avoid paying the higher costs of imported goods, it’s expected that (at least initially) demand will surge for domestic producers, putting strain on food safety systems. And these disruptions come at a time when federal resources to safeguard food safety are also disrupted. The FDA has announced cuts to food safety inspection funding, and RFK Jr. has just announced that he will be firing thousands more FDA staff.

As Benjamin Miller at FoodProcessing.com explains, an increased interest in American-produced food could lead to “demand surges” for food producers, “creating a fundamental safety challenge where production pressures increase faster than the food safety infrastructure.” Miller also points out what happens when high tariffs prompt suppliers to work outside of the law:

“When legitimate import channels become prohibitively expensive, sophisticated black market operations emerge that specifically target food supply chains. These operations present unique food safety hazards, as products may be transported without temperature monitoring or verification; traceability documentation is often falsified, eliminating the ability to conduct recalls; and products may be “washed” through multiple intermediaries to obscure origin.” 

Food banks, SNAP, WIC, and other nutrition assistance programs expect deep cuts

With increased food costs comes increased food insecurity and demand for nutrition assistance. The Republican-controlled Congress has decided to target cuts to critical nutrition assistance programs like SNAP, WIC, and the National School Lunch and Breakfast Programs, leaving 1 in 5 children and as many as 40 million Americans without the means to purchase enough food. With limited federal food assistance and high grocery prices, many families will turn to food banks and food pantries to help feed their families. 

But funding for food banks and school meals have already seen $1 billion cuts at the direction of Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a shadowy group Trump established via executive order whose ”operations, formation, and activity,” say Rep. Jamie Raskin and Rep. Gerald Connolly, the top Democrats on the House Judiciary and House Oversight committees, “may be outside the bounds of federal law.” 

Cuts to programs that provide children with nutritious meals at school and help families put food on the table underscore fundamental contradictions that define the rhetoric surrounding DOGE and “Make America Healthy Again.” These programs aren’t defrauding the government or wasting taxpayer money. In fact, quite the opposite: Nutrition programs stimulate the economy and are linked to lower healthcare spending and improved health outcomes.

The bottom line: Everyone who eats will pay for Trump’s trade wars

The outlook for consumers in the coming months is not especially bright; incoming price hikes on food will not “Make America Healthy Again.” They will not “Make America’s Groceries Affordable,” and despite what Trump repeatedly told prospective voters on the campaign trail, levying taxes that American businesses and consumers have to pay is not “a cost to another country.” A tariff is a tax that we pay. 

From farmers to food manufacturers to restaurants to household grocery budgets, the cascading effects of hiking tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico are going to cost Americans a lot of money and a lot of food security. 

What you can do

Groceries are expensive enough, and Trump’s proposed 20 percent tariffs on China and 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will likely raise food prices even more, making it increasingly difficult for Americans to afford healthy food. 

Tariffs will not make America healthy again. 

Sign the petition to oppose Trump’s tariffs